Last year, more than 115 million m² were sold in Europe’s Top 13 markets as the market suffers by the declining housing market. The long-term growth trend remains intact and underfloor heating will further dominate the heating market. The residential customer segment will slightly loose market shares, as the latest study by InterConnection Consulting shows.

Poland Has the Biggest Electro Scene – Unlike Italy

Hydronic, meaning water based, UFH systems are the most common choice all across Europe when it comes to the decision of how to heat one’s floor. But there are some important differences: While the market share of water based UFH systems in Poland is still high with 74%, it is the lowest in Europe. The situation changes completely when we take a further look into the Italian market: almost 100% of all UFH systems sold are hydronic, mainly because of the advantage, compared to its electric counterpart, that during hot seasons these systems can also be used for cooling instead of heating. This phenomenon may be more established in Italy but it gains importance in other European countries too, like in the UK for example. Other factors for the popularity of hydronic systems could be the lower overall cost of energy consumption, even though the prices for installing choosing this heating option are higher than for the electric UFH systems.

Given the dominance of hydronic UFH systems, it is worth looking further into this product group: We can distinguish between the so-called wet installation method and the dry installation method, that is considered mostly in renovation projects. Wet installations are generally the most common installation method because of the lower costs.

Most UFH Systems Are Installed in the Residential Segment

The residential sector is the one with the most square meters of underfloor heating installed across all analyzed European countries. The market share of this customer segment varies between 67% and 98%, but in almost all countries, except Belgium, there is a trend towards the non-residential segment, meaning that by 2027 the European market share of this segment will be about 20%.

As the attachment rate is stable for the majority of the countries, the trend towards the non-residential segment can be mostly attributed to the comparatively better development of the non-residential sector.

The Top 10 Account Only for 28% of the Total Market

The so-called system producers, meaning producers that offer whole UFH systems, not only certain components like pipes or plates, have a cumulative quantity market share of only 28%. The rest of the market belongs to many component and regional system producers.

Market shares are currently shifting relatively strongly in Spain, where the established companies loose market shares to smaller and cheaper producers. Examples for local top players are ALB Sistemas and Polytherm in Spain, RWC and Polypipe in the UK and LK Pex in Sweden. The European top players in alphabetical order are: Danfoss, Oventrop, Purmo, Kermi, Rehau, Roth, Schütz, Stiebel Eltron, Uponor, and Warmup.

The EU countries’ desired phase-out of gas and oil heating systems sent biomass boiler sales through the roof from 2019 to 2022, with average annual growth of 36% in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France and Italy. But the boom appears to be over as 2023 begins, according to a study by Interconnection Consulting.

This year, the market for biomass heating boilers is expected to decline 19% in the markets studied. The rise in pellet prices made pellet biomass boilers, which account for nearly two-thirds of the market, unattractive to many. In this segment, therefore, the decline will be as much as 24.7%. In addition to the sharp rise in pellet prices, discussions in Europe about the climate friendliness of pellet biomass boilers also contributed to the decline in demand. “Finally, the active promotion of heat pumps in the States also leads to a decline in the biomass boiler segment,” as Yuliia Hrebenkova, the author of the study explains.

Replacement Is Most Important Purchase Motive

After the pellet biomass boilers, which are mainly used for low required heating capacity (between 20 and 400 kilowatts), wood biomass boilers are designed for larger heating capacity of up to 3 megawatts. Due to the higher prices, these account for around 34% of the shares in value, of the entire biomass boiler market. Especially in the segment of boilers with low heating capacity, sales are strongly dependent on the price of the fuel, explains Hrebenkova. “When wood in Austria fell in price by 25%, sales of such boilers increased by 12.4%.” Nine out of ten biomass boilers are sold due to the replacement of old heating systems. This segment continues to ensure the growth of the industry. From 2023 to 2026, sales of biomass boilers are expected to increase by an annual average of 3.9% in the countries studied.

Germany Far Ahead

Within the five countries in the study, Germany is by far the largest sales market with a share of 57.2%. Between 2020 and 2022, Germany experienced a boom in demand for biomass boilers. During these years, sales increased by an average of 57.4% per year. The government played a major role in boosting demand with attractive subsidies. In comparison, France only has a share of 16.5%. There, more use is made of electric heat pumps for replacement. Between 2020 and 2022, the country recorded an increase of only 12.5% per year. In Italy, too, biomass boilers only enjoy a niche existence. There, 80% of energy consumption is still met by fossil fuels. In 2022, only 9606 biomass boilers were sold in Italy, which meant a decrease of 17.9%. The Austrian market developed with 30% growth per year between 2020 and 2022, while the Swiss biomass boiler market performed a bit weaker with a growth of 16.5 p.a.. The top 5 suppliers generate a market share of 41.7% in value and 38.1% in volume in the five countries studied.

The market for floor heatings in the DACH-region not only benefits from the construction boom but also from rising popularity of surface heatings. In 2018 sales increased by 4,2 percent compared to the previous year. Until 2021 it can be expected that the market will reach a level of 27,9 mil. square meters representing an annual average growth (CAGR) of 0,9% – as growth dynamic will slow down significantly from 2019.