Shades of Recovery: Europe’s Exterior Paints Market Finds Balance

After two years of fading colors, the European façade paints market is beginning to brighten again. Volumes reached their lowest point in 2025 at 280 million liters, down by -1.5%, but are expected to regain vibrancy from 2026 onward, climbing to 311 million liters by 2028 — equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%. In value terms, the market is forecast to grow from €2.09 billion to €2.40 billion over the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8%. These findings come from the new IC Market Tracking: Exterior Paints in Europe by Interconnection Consulting, which paints a detailed picture of trends across Germany, Slovakia, Italy, the Czech Republic, Austria, France, Spain, and Poland.

Still, the picture in 2025 is far from uniform. Poland (+6.1%) and Spain (+2.8%) are adding vibrant strokes of growth, while Slovakia (-7.6%) and Austria (-4.9%) are stuck in darker shades. Meanwhile, Germany and France, which together account for more than a third of regional demand, remain the steady canvas for the industry. “The market has reached its trough, but the road ahead looks very different depending on geography. Southern and Eastern markets are gaining momentum, while parts of Central Europe remain stuck in stagnation. This forces manufacturers to tailor strategies by region rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach,” comments Juan Carraha, Market Analyst at Interconnection Consulting.

In terms of market volume, emulsions remain the largest product group in 2025 with 33.9%, though their share has been gradually eroding over recent years as demand shifts toward higher-performance alternatives. Silicone-based paints follow with 29.2%, valued for their durability and weather resistance, particularly in Central European climates. Acrylics account for 19.5% of demand, maintaining strong positions in Southern Europe due to their affordability, while silicate paints hold 17.4%, continuing to serve heritage and restoration projects across the region.

On the business side, renovation projects account for 74.4% of demand in 2025, underscoring the sector’s reliance on upgrading existing buildings. However, new construction — which currently represents 25.6% — is expected to gain momentum in the coming years as building activity gradually recovers. Distribution remains dominated by indirect channels (70.9%), and the residential segment represents nearly 68.7% of demand.

The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly consolidated, with the top ten companies accounting for 53.7% of total market value. These include, in alphabetical order, AkzoNobel, Brillux, Caparol, Cromology, Keimfarben, Meffert, PPG, Prosol, Sto, and Unikalo. While large international groups are shaping the contours of the European market, local champions continue to add distinctive brushstrokes across niche segments.

The European exterior paints market is stabilizing, but its recovery is uneven and increasingly shaped by regional dynamics. Interconnection Consulting’s analysis makes clear: success in this market will depend not on broad strokes, but on precision—knowing where, how, and for whom to paint the future.